AGP Executive Report

Commodity Trade: Turkmenistan’s commodity exchange recorded 13 deals worth more than $145 million last week, including foreign-currency sales of sulfur, cotton fiber, yarn and fabric. Domestic transactions topped 27.3 million manats. Investment Plans: The government plans to invest more than 41.2 billion manats by year-end, with 68.5% directed to production facilities and the rest to social infrastructure. Transport Links: At an exhibition in Kabul, OJAR AZIYA presented a proposed 450-kilometer Sarakhs–Mary–Serhetabat highway and a logistics complex under construction at Afghanistan’s Torghundi rail terminal, designed to handle up to 2.4 million tonnes of cargo annually. Regional Markets: Leaders meeting in Avaza set a goal of increasing trade among participating states from about €11.6 billion to at least €17 billion, with transport connectivity a priority. Turkmenistan also proposed designating 2029 the Year of CIS Transport Connectivity. Energy Sector: A visit by Society of Petroleum Engineers leaders advanced technical cooperation and preparations for Ashgabat’s Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan conference, scheduled for October 21–23; the sides also discussed hosting a Caspian technical conference in 2027.

Aviation Growth: Central Asia carried 31.7 million passengers in 2025, nearly double its 2019 total, as the region’s aircraft capacity expanded rapidly. Turkmenistan accounted for 7% of passenger traffic, according to the report. Energy Cooperation: A Society of Petroleum Engineers delegation met Turkmenistan’s energy sector and academic leaders ahead of OGT 2026, scheduled for October 21–23. Ashgabat is also being considered to host the SPE Caspian Technical Conference in 2027. Regional Trade: Private-sector representatives from Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and India signed trade and investment deals worth nearly $400 million at a Kabul meeting attended by business representatives from Turkmenistan and other regional countries. Transport Links: At the CIS summit, Turkmenistan proposed making 2029 the Year of Transport Connectivity, building on its push to develop regional logistics. Investment and the Caspian: Turkmenistan plans more than 41.2 billion manats in investment by year-end, with most directed to production facilities. Meanwhile, Caspian states agreed to form a commission on falling sea levels, a growing concern for ports, shipping and regional trade.

Energy: A Society of Petroleum Engineers delegation met Turkmenistan’s energy and academic leaders ahead of OGT 2026, set for October 21–23 in Ashgabat. Talks covered technical training and regional cooperation, with Ashgabat considered as host of SPE’s Caspian conference in 2027. Regional Trade: Private-sector agreements worth nearly $400 million were signed by Afghan, Uzbek and Indian businesses at a Kabul trade event attended by Turkmen representatives. Investment: Turkmenistan plans to invest more than 41.2 billion manats by year-end in industrial facilities and social infrastructure; 68.5% of construction spending is allocated to production. Transport: At the Awaza summit, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov proposed declaring 2029 the Year of CIS Transport Connectivity, while leaders of five Caspian states agreed to establish a commission on falling sea levels—a growing concern for ports, shipping and regional trade routes. Partnership: Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan agreed to establish a Supreme Council of Strategic Partnership, creating a new high-level channel for bilateral cooperation.

Energy Routes: Kazakhstan is studying ways to ship more oil west across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, reducing reliance on a Russian export route. The proposal also raises the prospect of a future trans-Caspian gas link that could include Turkmenistan. Investment Plans: Turkmenistan says it plans to invest more than 41.2 billion manats (about $11.8 billion) by year-end, with 68.5% directed to production facilities; officials project 6.3% economic growth in 2026. Transport Connectivity: At the CIS summit in Avaza, Turkmenistan proposed making 2029 the Year of CIS Transport Connectivity, building on regional plans to develop East–West and North–South corridors. Caspian Risks: Five coastal states agreed to establish a commission on the sea’s falling water levels, which threaten ports, shipping capacity and regional trade. Its first meeting is planned for Azerbaijan in the first half of 2027.

Investment Plans: Turkmenistan plans to invest more than 41.2 billion manats by year-end, directing 68.5% of construction spending to production facilities. Officials project 6.3% GDP growth and about 5,300 new jobs. Transport Links: At the Avaza regional summit, leaders backed East–West and North–South corridors as priorities, with Turkmenistan highlighting the Caspian route linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Europe. The CIS also designated 2029 as the Year of Transport Connectivity. Caspian Economy: Five littoral states agreed to establish a commission on the sea’s falling water levels, with its first meeting planned for Azerbaijan in the first half of 2027. The decline threatens ports, shipping capacity and the competitiveness of trans-Caspian trade routes.

Caspian Economy: The five Caspian states agreed in Avaza to create a joint commission to investigate falling sea levels and develop responses. The decline threatens ports, trans-Caspian logistics, investment and coastal jobs; the commission’s first meeting is planned for Azerbaijan in early 2027. Regional Connectivity: Central Asian leaders and Azerbaijan backed East–West and North–South transport links, industrial cooperation and cross-border investment at their Avaza summit, with Turkmenistan calling for practical steps to strengthen these routes. CIS Trade: At a separate summit, leaders urged fewer trade barriers and deeper economic ties. Uzbekistan called for removing technical obstacles and supporting joint projects, while Russia said national currencies account for more than 90% of CIS commercial settlements.

Caspian Economy: At the environmental summit in Turkmenbashi, leaders warned that the sea’s shrinking shoreline threatens ports, fisheries and trans-Caspian logistics. Putin said Russia’s Caspian shoreline had receded by about 20,000 square kilometers in 20 years; regional leaders called for coordinated research and action. Regional Trade: At the Central Asia–Azerbaijan summit, Kazakhstan proposed raising trade among the six countries to $20 billion from about $13 billion in 2025. Uzbekistan called for a regional business forum in 2027, while Kyrgyzstan proposed a shared e-commerce platform. Turkmenistan highlighted the region’s potential as a transport, logistics, energy and industrial hub. CIS Connectivity: CIS leaders named 2029 the Year of Transport Connectivity, following Turkmenistan’s initiative. Putin said more than 90% of transactions among member states are settled in national currencies and urged countries to remove barriers to trade. Turkmenistan’s Growth: The country reported GDP growth of 6.3% over the first nine months of 2026. Uzbekistan Ties: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan agreed to establish a high-level Strategic Partnership Council, deepening bilateral cooperation.

Iran-Russia Business Ties: Meeting in Turkmenistan, the presidents discussed expanding cooperation in energy, agriculture, transport and trade, and speeding up joint projects. Regional Integration: At the Avaza summit, Central Asian leaders and Azerbaijan backed closer economic and transport links, including joint production chains and a shared e-commerce marketplace. Kazakhstan’s president proposed raising regional trade from about $13 billion to $20 billion. Uzbekistan Partnership: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan agreed to establish a High-Level Strategic Partnership Council and advance cooperation in trade, industry, energy, transport and agriculture, building on growth in bilateral trade and the Shavat-Dashoguz trade zone. Belarus Trade: Turkmen and Belarusian officials agreed to hold a business forum and step up entrepreneur and investment links, including in light and food industries. Economic Outlook: Turkmenistan reported GDP growth of 6.3% in the first nine months of 2026.

Regional Trade: Leaders at Awaza’s first Central Asia–Azerbaijan summit backed stronger trade, investment, e-commerce and transport links, including East–West and North–South corridors. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov proposed a shared online marketplace to help regional businesses reach customers. Belarus Links: Turkmenistan and Belarus agreed to hold a business forum soon and expand entrepreneur contacts, with investment and joint projects in sectors including light and food industries on the agenda. Iran Transit: Turkmen and Iranian officials discussed expanding transport infrastructure, transit opportunities and trade cooperation, reinforcing a long-running economic partnership. Gas Exports: Work is advancing on the 153-kilometre Turkmenistan–Afghanistan section of the TAPI pipeline, with about 700 Turkmen specialists deployed as the project seeks to open a major route for Central Asian gas to Pakistan and India.

Regional Water Management: Central Asian states agreed on 2026–27 reservoir operations and water allocations, coordinating river use ahead of the next growing season. Transport Links: Belarus and Turkmenistan discussed routing Belarusian goods through Turkmen ports, possible transit hubs and a Minsk–Ashgabat flight link. CIS ministers also backed Turkmenistan’s initiative to designate 2029 the Year of Transport Connectivity. Business Outreach: Malaysia’s economy minister will bring a delegation of more than 20 companies to Ashgabat’s Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan conference on October 21–23. Investment Climate: Turkmenistan’s new e-visa system removes the invitation-letter requirement for foreign visitors, while official figures put GDP growth at 6.3% in the first nine months of 2026.

Business Access: Turkmenistan has launched e-visas for tourists, business visitors and humanitarian travel, removing the invitation-letter requirement and moving foreigner registration online. The changes could make visits easier for investors and companies. Transit Links: Turkmenistan and Iran discussed expanding transport connections and transit opportunities in Avaza, but announced no new agreement. At the same meetings, Azerbaijan called for better infrastructure links and digital transit procedures to strengthen regional trade. Middle Corridor: A World Bank-backed assessment says the route linking Asia and Europe via the Caspian could need more than $55 billion in investment by 2040 to increase freight and cut travel times; border delays and fragmented systems remain hurdles. Investment and Growth: Turkmenistan reported 6.3% GDP growth in the first nine months of 2026. Its $5.1 billion fourth phase at the Galkynysh gas field and investment forum agreements signal continued focus on energy and attracting foreign capital.

Turkmenistan e-Visa & registration overhaul: Ashgabat has launched an electronic visa system and an online portal for foreign visitors’ registration, removing the earlier mandatory invitation letter requirement and aiming to cut paperwork and processing time; some details like fees and document lists are still unclear. EBRD push for Turkmenistan deal flow: The EBRD says its memorandum with Turkmenistan’s central bank should enable the first concrete financing transactions soon, with export-oriented private firms in manufacturing, agribusiness, logistics and services in focus. Defense exports to Turkmenistan: India’s Defence Secretary confirmed Akash air-defense missile system exports to Turkmenistan (after Armenia and also Tajikistan), with production now “stabilised” and further orders expected. Investment Forum business agenda: Turkmenistan’s Investment Forum wrapped up with renewed emphasis on attracting foreign capital, improving the investment climate, and expanding infrastructure and public-private partnerships. Regional connectivity & trade routes: The Middle Corridor could quadruple Asia-Europe freight by 2040, but border delays and fragmented documentation remain key bottlenecks—an issue for Turkmenistan’s logistics ambitions. Caspian diplomacy at Avaza: From Oct 7-9, Turkmenistan hosts dense CIS and Central Asia-Azerbaijan/Caspian environmental talks, positioning Avaza as a hub for transport, trade and water discussions. Turkmenistan commodity market activity: SCRMET auctions recorded over $9.5m in foreign-currency deals for cotton fibre and fabric, plus domestic purchases including low-sulfur heating oil and cotton yarn.

E-Visa Rollout: Turkmenistan has launched an electronic visa system and a new online registration portal for foreign visitors, removing the usual invitation-letter requirement and aiming to cut paperwork and processing time via the migration service portal. Migration Digitalization: The State Migration Service also digitized registration procedures, with plans to move place-of-stay reporting online and enable instant biometric registration at some checkpoints. Islamic Finance Dialogue: Central Asian bankers and experts discussed how to build Islamic banking models, including “Islamic windows” inside conventional banks, at Colvir’s Islamic Brunch Live conference. EBRD Banking Accord: The EBRD says its first concrete Turkmenistan investment deals are expected to flow from a memorandum with the Central Bank, enabling export-oriented private firms with foreign-currency revenues to access financing. Investment Forum Momentum: Turkmenistan’s Investment Forum in Ashgabat highlighted priorities for attracting capital, including infrastructure, logistics, digitalization and investor-rights reforms, with UNFPA stressing “demographic intelligence” for economic diversification. Air-Defence Exports: India confirmed Akash surface-to-air missile system exports to Turkmenistan (and Tajikistan), saying production has stabilized and additional orders are expected. CIS/Avaza Diplomacy: High-level CIS and Caspian meetings are set for Avaza starting Oct. 7, positioning Turkmenistan’s CIS chairmanship as a platform for trade, transport, water and environment discussions. Climate Finance Tool: A new digital platform was tested in Ashgabat to monitor transparency of climate spending and improve reporting for greenhouse-gas and Paris Agreement planning. Market Activity: SCRMET auctions recorded $9.5m+ in foreign-currency deals for cotton fibre and fabric, alongside domestic purchases of heating oil and cotton yarn.

CIS & Caspian Diplomacy: Turkmenistan’s Avaza is set to host a dense Oct. 7–9 run of summits and ministerial talks, including Central Asia–Azerbaijan and CIS heads-of-state meetings, with agendas spanning transport, trade, water, environment, health and culture—key for Ashgabat’s 2026 CIS chairmanship. E-Visa Overhaul: Turkmenistan has removed the mandatory invitation letter for e-Visa applicants and moved registration online via migration.gov.tm, with biometric options at some checkpoints, though full portal details and status checks are still being finalized. Climate Finance Tracking: An Ashgabat training session with the Ministry of Environmental Protection, FAO and the Green Climate Fund introduced a new digital tool to monitor transparency of climate spending and improve reporting for Paris-aligned planning. Defense Exports: India says its Akash air-defense system has reached Turkmenistan (and Tajikistan), with production “stabilised” and exports expanding beyond Armenia. Investment Momentum: The EBRD expects its first concrete Turkmenistan deals from a central bank banking accord, targeting export-oriented firms in manufacturing, agribusiness, logistics and services. Macroeconomic Update: Turkmenistan reports GDP growth of 6.3% for Jan–Sep, with transport/communications up 10.4% and production volume up 9.9%. Regional Trade Deals: SCRMET auctions logged $9.5m+ in foreign-currency cotton fibre and fabric purchases, alongside domestic heating oil and cotton yarn transactions. Transport & Infrastructure: Documents signed during TIF 2026 include railway modernization with CSCEC and water-management modernization plus deep-water dredging cooperation with Damen and Liamol.

Turkmenistan Investment Push: The Turkmenistan Investment Forum (Oct 1–2) wrapped up in Ashgabat, with officials and international partners spotlighting investor protection, PPPs, infrastructure, logistics, digitalization and “demographic intelligence” for economic diversification. EBRD Banking Accord: EBRD says its memorandum with Turkmenistan’s central bank is the fastest path to concrete deals, aiming to restart direct financing for export-oriented private firms in manufacturing, agribusiness, logistics and services. Air-Defence Exports: India confirmed Akash surface-to-air systems have been exported to Turkmenistan (and Tajikistan), with production now in a stabilized phase and more orders expected. Macroeconomic Update: Turkmenistan reported GDP growth of 6.3% for Jan–Sep 2026, alongside gains across transport/communications, trade, services and construction. Digital Travel Reform: Turkmenistan launched an e-visa system with three categories (tourist, business, humanitarian), though the portal’s rules and access details are still being clarified. Trade & Auctions: SCRMET auctions recorded $9.509m+ in transactions, including foreign-currency purchases of cotton fibre and fabric, plus domestic sales of heating oil and cotton yarn. Regional Connectivity Watch: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed a memorandum to study a new railway route through Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach seaports.

Turkmenistan Investment Forum 2026 Wrap-Up: Ashgabat’s TIF 2026 closed with talks on energy, transport, digital tech and legal tools for investors, including UNFPA’s push to use “demographic intelligence” for economic planning and a new focus on virtual assets, fintech and green transformation. E-Visa Goes Live: Turkmenistan launched an electronic visa system on Oct. 1, with three categories (tourist, business, humanitarian) and a shift away from the old invitation-letter approach, though the portal’s rules were still being clarified. Macroeconomic Momentum: A cabinet review cited GDP growth of 6.3% for Jan–Sep and gains across transport/communications (10.4%), trade (8.4%), services (8.4%) and construction (6.7%). New Deals for Infrastructure: During TIF, Turkmen ministries signed MoUs with OnU H&C (telecom/digital capacity), CSCEC (rail modernization) and international partners for water-system upgrades and deep-water dredging. Air-Defence Upgrade: India’s Akash missile system entered Turkmenistan, adding to the country’s Chinese air-defence network. Regional Connectivity & Partners: Iran urged Turkmenistan to turn experience into a “new generation of investments,” while EU support for the Trans-Caspian route highlighted Turkmenbashi port links and logistics modernization. Everyday Economy Pressure: A shortage of tenge coins is forcing cash workarounds, from rounded prices to bus-fare workarounds in Ashgabat.