New Vehicle Sales Expected to Dip in Q1 Amid Ongoing Affordability Challenges, According to Edmunds
Analysts forecast a SAAR of 15.9M for March as needs-based purchases help sustain the market despite ongoing economic headwinds
SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,693,459 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 6.3% decrease from the first quarter of 2025 and a 8.8% decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
“Q1 marked a bumpy start for new-car sales in 2026. Between severe weather, geopolitical uncertainty, rising gas prices and ongoing affordability challenges, it’s no surprise sales are down year over year. Comparisons are also tougher given the strength of March 2025 new-vehicle sales, which benefited from some shoppers pulling purchases forward in anticipation of tariff-driven price increases,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “That said, sales are far from falling off a cliff. A 15.9 million SAAR is right in line with our full-year outlook of 16 million and reflects a market being sustained by more practical needs-based purchases rather than discretionary splurges.”
Caldwell notes that Q1 new-car sales reflect an increasingly K-shaped market, where higher-income shoppers continue to buy while more price-sensitive buyers face mounting barriers to entry.
“New-car buyers tend to be more affluent, which helps cushion the impact of higher gas prices. But shoppers looking for lower-priced vehicles are feeling the squeeze the most, especially given how limited those options are in today’s new-vehicle market,” said Caldwell.
Edmunds analysts say car shoppers currently in the market are best served by taking a more measured, long-term approach to their decision-making when buying or selling.
“Gas prices can be volatile, so it’s important not to overreact to short-term spikes,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “Trading in a less fuel-efficient vehicle during a surge can actually put you at a disadvantage, as values for those vehicles soften while demand for more efficient models drives prices up. In many cases, the smarter move is to ride it out and make a more measured decision once conditions stabilize.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2026 Q1 Forecast | 2025 Q1 Sales | 2025 Q4 Sales | Change from 2025 Q1 | Change from 2025 Q4 |
| GM | 625,793 | 693,466 | 703,072 | -9.8% | -11.0% |
| Toyota | 568,737 | 570,717 | 653,243 | -0.3% | -12.9% |
| Ford | 448,329 | 501,301 | 545,239 | -10.6% | -17.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 417,708 | 420,205 | 462,847 | -0.6% | -9.8% |
| Honda | 337,604 | 351,577 | 332,578 | -4.0% | 1.5% |
| Stellantis | 291,348 | 294,270 | 332,716 | -1.0% | -12.4% |
| Nissan | 242,072 | 267,220 | 214,250 | -9.4% | 13.0% |
| Industry | 3,693,459 | 3,941,029 | 4,048,186 | -6.3% | -8.8% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2026 Q1 Forecast | 2025 Q1 Sales | 2025 Q4 Sales | Change from 2025 Q1 | Change from 2025 Q4 |
| GM | 16.9% | 17.6% | 17.4% | -3.7% | -2.4% |
| Toyota | 15.4% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 6.3% | -4.6% |
| Ford | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.5% | -4.6% | -9.9% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 6.1% | -1.1% |
| Honda | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 11.3% |
| Stellantis | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | -4.0% |
| Nissan | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | -3.3% | 23.8% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
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